Section Items

The comments on this page are some of the thoughts that I had when considering this company and not a recommendation to take an action or to refrain from taking an action.

As you know we have no information about your circumstances, understanding of your investment goals or the level of risk that is acceptable to you. So it would be completely unreasonable to read these commentaries as recommendations.
Is This Just Pump And Dump?
I may or may not own the shares which have commentaries on this site.

Commentaries tend to be created when I look at a share and decide if it is one that I want to buy either now or when I next have an unallocated pot.
As companies often report numbers in slightly different ways there are a number of entries to cover this and as these are rough notes there will usually be empty items.

The debt columns are shown as positive values if there is any debt, all other negative values are shown within parenthesis and without a sign.

Commentary On Thomas Cook

Title: Thomas Cook - Is The Recapitalisation An Opportunity?
Company: TCG - Thomas Cook
Share Price Then: 5.38p
Author: Ian Smith
Date: Sun 14 Jul 2019
Comments: On Friday Thomas Cook announced that they are in advanced discussions over a £750 million cash injection and a debt for equity swap

Existing shareholders will be significantly diluted as part of the recapitalisation. However, shareholders may be given the opportunity to participate in the recapitalisation by way of investment alongside Fosun and converting financial creditors on terms to be agreed.

Clearly for any long term holders this is a disaster, over the last 5 years the share price has mostly traded in the 60p-120p to range, whilst on Friday it closed at 5.3p giving a market cap of £83m.

What I am trying to work out is the dilution level and assuming that a successful Thomas Cook is worth 100p per share pre the refinancing.

The ….shareholders may be given the opportunity to participate in the recapitalisation…

....The recapitalisation proposal will require a reorganisation of the ownership of the Tour Operator and Airline businesses which is expected to result in Fosun owning a significant controlling stake in the Group Tour Operator and a significant minority interest in the Group Airline....

suggests that the plan isn’t to do something like 500 new shares for each existing one which would wipe out existing share holders and give them no reason to invest but something “just about palatable”.

So does “just about palatable” mean the current share holders will end up with 10% of the company, or 5% or 1% after the recapitalisation?

The retail market has been scared, and on Monday the price may continue to drop, possibly down to 1p-3p.

So am I right that the plan will leave something for existing share holders? If I am I see an opportunity to get it wrong and lose a lot, or to think this through and possibly do well.

If the plan is to leave just 1% for existing share holders then the fair share price may be 1p, but if the price really does drop that low and the plan is to leave 5% then upon announcement of the formal terms you could be looking at a 5 times return in only a few months.

Of course if the plan is to leave just 0.5% for existing share holders then you are trapped in with 50% loss.

Clearly this is not a safe play for anyone as there is this single massive unknown, but if you do have a High Risk section in your portfolio then this could be an interesting play.

Note that the numbers shown are H1 not annual figures.
ItemCurrent PeriodPrevious Period
Adjusted Earnings
Adjusted EBITDA
Statutory Profit(£1474m)(£303m)
Adjusted Profit
Total Debt
Net Debt£1247m£886m
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