Should I Buy Shares In

Should I Buy Shares In.... is a specific question that requires the responder to be FCA registered and have a thorough understanding of your circumstances.

Below I have given a one line summary of the negatives and positives of some of the businesses that I have looked at. This is not a recommendation to buy, sell or hold.

Companies
Ticker Company Date last Reviewed Price When Added
/Last Review		 NegativesPositives
?_EHTH eHealth 21/Aug/20 106p/106p Accusations from Muddy Waters that it is mostly smoke and mirrors which seem more credible to me that the managements rebuttals. Burford and eHealth are very similar cases although in different industries. I am interested because the warnings from MW are not being heeded, so have they misunderstood something or are they right, I am on the side of the MW analysis.
ALY Ashley (Laura) Holdings plc 22/Aug/20 11p/0p Company appears to be winding down
AMGO Amigo Holdings PLC 02/Sep/20 7p/13.26p A combination of making risky loans and an unwillingness to tell complainants and regulators that the borrower and guarantor has the majority of the responsibility as they asked for and accepted the loan New management could get much more aggressive with people complaining that they asked for and were given loans but they can't afford them.
AML Aston Martin Lagonda 02/Sep/20 51p/55.73p Too much debt and they have already done a share issue to fix that, very heavily reliant on sales of the DBX the new SUV, a worrying number of statements about how sponsoring the Stroll owned F1 team is great news. New management getting much more aggressive with people complaining that they asked for and were given loans but they can't afford them.
BARC Barclays 02/Sep/20 120p/107.02p Its hard to know what will happen to bad debt in both the personal and business banking sector as COVID plays out. There is a strong reason to believe that the COVID induced drop down to 70p was an over reaction and a recovery to 150p-200p is realistic.
BUR Burford Capital Ltd 02/Sep/20 540p/587.1p Accusations from Muddy Waters that it is mostly smoke and mirrors which seem more credible to me that the managements rebuttals There is a real underlying business which is attractive if the share price drops to match it.
CAML Central Asia Metals 15/Sep/20 151p/151p Well established miner, where do they go in the future? Not overburdened with debt so could borrow to expand.
COST Costain Group plc 09/Sep/20 44.5p/45.5p Huge turnover on large construction projects and tiny profit margins which seems to result in no profits. Recent share issue. Part of HS2 and may be attractive as a company that still has a large order book as many other companies crash after COVID.
CWD Countrywide plc 21/Aug/20 109p/109p Too much debt and they have already done a share issue to fix that, did a 50 for 1 share consolidation to bring the shares out the penny arena Maybe Purple Bricks or another on line only business might see the business as a quick way to establish an office presence in many towns under another name.
DTY Dignity plc 02/Sep/20 467p/520p A big group that seems to be struggling with their costs in a market where many of its competitors are small owner operators. Seem to need big profits from ancillaries such as flowers and car to be profitable. FCA regulation planned for pre-paid funeral plans which may hinder their smaller competitors.
ESL Eddie Stobart Logistics PLC 21/Aug/20 7.98p/7.98p Too much debt a lot of which is owed to a major shareholder as the result of a bailout, COVID has hit logistics hard as they often need staff for only part of the working day. The name, the capacity and the reputation.
FCH Funding Circle Holdings PLC 02/Sep/20 68p/76.8p Well established business that seems to be prioritising growth over profitability, they seem to have more money to lend than customers who can borrow and pay it back. As a government backed COVID loans provider these might be a good loan book, but these loans have no repayments due for the first 12 months.
FSJ James Fisher & Sons plc 09/Nov/20 1104p/765p Affected by COVID by more than expected. Quite possibly a share that could, just could, double
GMS Gulf Marine Services plc 21/Aug/20 11p/11p Is the oil exploration business dying off forcing the prices charged by drilling equipment hirers down to far? A modern fleet and equipment.
GRG Greggs Plc 09/Oct/20 1400p/1400p Possible dividend cuts to help pay off COVID loan may cause share price drop. A great business with little debt and great medium term prospects
HYVE ITE Group plc 02/Sep/20 86p/86.08p Is the day of the large trade show over? By being forced to cancel events the exhibitors may have found better ways of achieving the same thing. I suspect that vanity shows like motor shows with concept cars are finished but more basic events where the cost to operate a stand are more reasonable are not over.
IQE IQE plc 02/Sep/20 56p/62.25p A few years ago this was a Muddy Waters pick, questioning the accounts. Is it really making money or is destined to always lose money and hide that with turnover subsidised by government grants? If I could really work out how they were doing commercially they may be as advanced as they market themselves to be.
KCT Kin and Carta PLC 02/Sep/20 51p/66.9p Just another mid sized consultancy.
LOOK Lookers Plc 02/Sep/20 21p/21p Shares suspended and accounts delayed beacuse of a relativelly small fraud. A big player in the new car market and if all the funnies have been found they don't appear to be terminal for the business.
MCB McBride plc 02/Sep/20 61p/59.8p They don't do anything that somewhere like China might decide to do cheaper. They actually make the cleaning products that many people and industries use. It isn't exciting but it is necessary and I suspect oversold.
MCRO Micro Focus Internation plc 02/Sep/20 291p/291.25p Too much debt and no obvious escape from declining revenues from expensive acquisitions. The concept of the business is solid, keep old reliable systems going.
MKS Marks & Spencer 02/Sep/20 107p/107.55p High Street Retailer with long term problems in clothing and homeware. Possible rent reductions on the high street, JV with Ocado giving a home delivery service.
MTRO Metro Bank plc 02/Sep/20 112p/95.28p The impetus of being a new bank with a new image has gone and it is still not clear that the bank can be meaningfully profitable. A valuable customer base for an existing bank.
PDG Pendragon 02/Sep/20 9p/8.21p Like Lookers they have suffered from some unsuccessful dealerships and also overstocking of used vehicles. If you avoid the low margin fleet business you susceptible to customer indecision ICE, ICE/Electric Hybrid or Electric. One maker may come out with a market dominant product as Tesla are still struggling to make the affordable electric car. One of the major players in new car dealerships and demand may be backing up,
PDL Petra Diamonds Ltd 21/Aug/20 1.62p/1.62p Existed for far too long for the amount of debt that they have. Unless there is a lucky layer of expensive stones I can't see a way out.
PMO Premier Oil Plc 02/Sep/20 21.8p/20.77p Debt of $1.9bn, about to tap shareholders for another $535m. Once the share issue takes place it could be a tradeable share for a couple of years.
PURP PurpleBricks Group plc 21/Aug/20 58p/58p Is a fee regardless of sale model going work if the housing market collapses under COVID induced job losses. The novelty of the brand has worn off and they seem to need continual TV advertising to attract new business. A relatively low cost operation with no high street branches and agents on commission only.
RR Rolls-Royce Holdings 02/Sep/20 256p/217.4p Share issue seems inevitable. The company seems to have been dragged down by its safety net of hedging against currency fluctuations. The current Government might not let it fail but won't nationalise it.
SDRY SuperDry 02/Sep/20 114p/129.5p The company is nearly all about the brand, young and trendy and older people started buying it a while back. Big disagreement between the founder, the board and institutional investors in 2019. Relatively little debt and the founder retook control about a year ago plus selling overseas as a luxury foreign brand, think Brompton bikes.
STAF Staffline Group 21/Aug/20 26p/26p Too much debt and they have already done a share issue to fix that along with a recent history of issues with financial management An attractive takeover target at a low enough price.
STOB Stobart Group Ltd 02/Sep/20 26p/24.3p High debt, recent share issue and COVID affecting the now core aviation division. A bit of a disaster recently but a very solid possibilty of success as focusing on its own airports and related services more generally. Rail division recently sold/given away.
STU Findel 02/Sep/20 228p/228p Standard mail order catalogue from the 1970s model put on line, reliant heavily on profit from credit rather than product sales.Bad debit may be at a worrying level The model might be old but it has stood the test of time, Frasers (Sports Direct) is a major shareholder.
SUPP Schroder UK Public Private Trust plc 10/Sep/20 30p/30p The old Woodford Patient Capital Trust. If you buy now then maybe, just maybe there is a good investment in the fund from the old days such as Reaction Engines, the new management need a lot of time with their decisions
TED Ted Baker 02/Sep/20 64p/108.05p The brand could simply be past its sell by date and the cost of the retail stores may be too high They did a share issue at 75p without a problem and have relatively little debt, they had some bad press a while back which most people may have forgotten.
TTG TT Electronics plc 10/Sep/20 241p/241p If Virolens turns out to be less of a success a possible big short term drop. Very solid business and a possible big revenue boost from Virolens
WAND WANDISCO PLC 18/Sep/20 497p/497p Continually loses money funded by share issues. I can't see any.
XLM XLMedia plc 21/Aug/20 24p/24p Google manually deranked a lot of their sites apparently because of a quality issue in Jan 2020 and no fix has been announced, suggesting that there is a real risk that there may never be a fix. They can fix the Google ranking issue.


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Tickers With A ?_
Some tickers start with a ?_ this indicates that they are non UK or historic UK tickers.


Colour Grades
Grade Meaning
  The Black Grade - Shares That I Think Could Collapse To Nothing Or Suffer A Massive Share Issue.
  The Red Grade - Shares That I Think Expect To Be Affected By Repeated Losses, Share Issues And Profit Warnings.
  The Grey Grade - Shares That I Think Are Informative But A Very High Risk Because The Valuation Seems Too High.
  The Pink Grade - A Pure Slightly Informed Gamble, The Market Doesn't Like The Company But I Think That I Understand Why.
  The Orange Grade - Shares That I Think Show Promise With A Few Caveats.
  The Green Grade - Shares That I Think Are Oversold..
  The Slate Grade - Shares That Are Of No Great Interest To Me, A Solid Business With No Reason To Expect A Price Change.


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Ian Smith, 62 Bath Road, Worcester, Worcestershire, WR5 3EW
Telephone:07429 340861, Email:IanS@BeginnersShareDealing.co.uk